Analysis

What the dev pairs support beyond a point estimate: template-clustered intervals, the baselines the shipped order is compared with, the sample sizes the claims would need, bundle honesty against the declared members and the false-CONFIRMED bounds.

Properties

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const val RESAMPLES: Int
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const val SOLVE_CONFIRMED: Int = 59
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const val SOLVE_FALSE_CONFIRMED: Int = 0
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const val SOLVE_RUNS: Int = 180

The Lab repeats on the 45 dev scenarios; the certificates are not in the repository.

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const val SOLVE_SCENARIOS: Int = 45
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const val SOLVE_STUCK_FIRST_RUN: Int = 21
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const val Z_ONE_SIDED: Long
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const val Z_POWER: Long
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const val Z_TWO_SIDED: Long

Functions

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fun bootstrap(shipped: List<Pred>, others: List<Pair<Model, List<Pred>>>, seed: Long): JsonObject

Percentile intervals (2.5 to 97.5) over RESAMPLES draws of whole templates with replacement, the same draws for every model so the differences from the shipped order are paired. Scenarios without a cause do not enter.

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The bundle class scored against its declared members: a ranked bundle should hold the cause and the members the template declares, and every other member is a cost.

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fun halfWidth(p: Long, z: Long, half: Long): Long

Sample size, in micro-units, for a proportion p known to within half.

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fun power(obs: List<Observed>, shipped: List<Pred>): JsonObject
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fun run(obs: List<Observed>, seed: Long): JsonObject
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fun sampleSize(p0: Long, p1: Long, za: Long, zb: Long): Long

Sample size, in micro-units, to tell p1 from p0 with the two powers za and zb.

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fun twoSample(p1: Long, p2: Long, za: Long, zb: Long): Long

Per-arm sample size, in micro-units, of an unpaired two-proportion comparison.

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Exact one-sided 95 percent upper bound, in micro-units, on a rate with no event in n.

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Smallest n whose zero-event bound is at most bound micro-units.